Conspiracy beliefs and perceptual inference in times of political uncertainty.

Sociopolitical crises causing uncertainty have accumulated in recent years, providing fertile ground for the emergence of conspiracy ideations. Computational models constitute valuable tools for understanding the mechanisms at play in the formation and rigidification of these unshakeable beliefs. Here, the Circular Inference model was used to capture associations between changes in perceptual inference and the dynamics of conspiracy ideations in times of uncertainty. A bistable perception task and conspiracy belief assessment focused on major sociopolitical events were administered to large populations from three polarized countries. We show that when uncertainty peaks, an overweighting of sensory information is associated with conspiracy ideations. Progressively, this exploration strategy gives way to an exploitation strategy in which increased adherence to conspiracy theories is associated with the amplification of prior information. Overall, the Circular Inference model sheds new light on the possible mechanisms underlying the progressive strengthening of conspiracy theories when individuals face highly uncertain situations.

Functional connectivity and glutamate levels of the medial prefrontal cortex in schizotypy are related to sensory amplification in a probabilistic reasoning task.

The circular inference (CI) computational model assumes a corruption of sensory data by prior information and vice versa, leading at the extremes to 'see what we expect' (through prior amplification) and/or to 'expect what we see' (through sensory amplification). Although a CI mechanism has been reported in a schizophrenia population, it has not been investigated in individuals experiencing psychosis-like experiences, such as people with high schizotypy traits. Furthermore, the neurobiological basis of CI, such as the link between hierarchical amplifications, excitatory neurotransmission, and resting state functional connectivity (RSFC), remains untested. The participants included in the present study consisted of a subsample of those recruited in a study previously published by our group, Kozhuharova et al. (2021b). We included 36 participants with High (n=18) and Low (n=18) levels of schizotypy who completed a probabilistic reasoning task (the Fisher task) for which individual confidence levels were obtained and fitted to the CI model. Participants also underwent a 1H-Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS) scan to measure medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) glutamate metabolite levels, and a functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) scan to measure RSFC of the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC). People with high levels of schizotypy exhibited changes in CI parameters, altered cortical excitatory neurotransmission and RSFC that were all associated with sensory amplification. Our findings capture a multimodal signature of CI that is observable in people early in the psychosis spectrum.

From hallucinations to synaesthesia: A circular inference account of unimodal and multimodal erroneous percepts in clinical and drug-induced psychosis.

Psychedelics distort perception and induce visual and multimodal hallucinations as well as synaesthesia. This is in contradiction with the high prevalence of distressing voices in schizophrenia. Here we introduce a unifying account of unimodal and multimodal erroneous percepts based on circular inference. We show that amplification of top-down predictions (descending loops) leads to an excessive reliance on priors and aberrant levels of integration of the sensory representations, resulting in crossmodal percepts and stronger illusions. By contrast, amplification of bottom-up information (ascending loops) results in overinterpretation of unreliable sensory inputs and high levels of segregation between sensory modalities, bringing about unimodal hallucinations and reduced vulnerability to illusions. We delineate a canonical microcircuit in which layer-specific inhibition controls the propagation of information across hierarchical levels: inhibitory interneurons in the deep layers exert control over priors, removing descending loops. Conversely, inhibition in the supragranular layers counterbalances the effects of the ascending loops. Overall, we put forward a multiscale and transnosographic account of erroneous percepts with important theoretical, conceptual and clinical implications.

Circular inference predicts nonuniform overactivation and dysconnectivity in brain-wide connectomes.

Schizophrenia is a severe mental disorder whose neural basis remains difficult to ascertain. Among the available pathophysiological theories, recent work has pointed towards subtle perturbations in the excitation-inhibition (E/I) balance within different neural circuits. Computational approaches have suggested interesting mechanisms that can account for both E/I imbalances and psychotic symptoms. Based on hierarchical neural networks propagating information through a message-passing algorithm, it was hypothesized that changes in the E/I ratio could cause a "circular belief propagation" in which bottom-up and top-down information reverberate. This circular inference (CI) was proposed to account for the clinical features of schizophrenia. Under this assumption, this paper examined the impact of CI on network dynamics in light of brain imaging findings related to psychosis. Using brain-inspired graphical models, we show that CI causes overconfidence and overactivation most specifically at the level of connector hubs (e.g., nodes with many connections allowing integration across networks). By also measuring functional connectivity in these graphs, we provide evidence that CI is able to predict specific changes in modularity known to be associated with schizophrenia. Altogether, these findings suggest that the CI framework may facilitate behavioral and neural research on the multifaceted nature of psychosis.

No increased circular inference in adults with high levels of autistic traits or autism.

Autism spectrum disorders have been proposed to arise from impairments in the probabilistic integration of prior knowledge with sensory inputs. Circular inference is one such possible impairment, in which excitation-to-inhibition imbalances in the cerebral cortex cause the reverberation and amplification of prior beliefs and sensory information. Recent empirical work has associated circular inference with the clinical dimensions of schizophrenia. Inhibition impairments have also been observed in autism, suggesting that signal reverberation might be present in that condition as well. In this study, we collected data from 21 participants with self-reported diagnoses of autism spectrum disorders and 155 participants with a broad range of autistic traits in an online probabilistic decision-making task (the fisher task). We used previously established Bayesian models to investigate possible associations between autistic traits or autism and circular inference. There was no correlation between prior or likelihood reverberation and autistic traits across the whole sample. Similarly, no differences in any of the circular inference model parameters were found between autistic participants and those with no diagnosis. Furthermore, participants incorporated information from both priors and likelihoods in their decisions, with no relationship between their weights and psychiatric traits, contrary to what common theories for both autism and schizophrenia would suggest. These findings suggest that there is no increased signal reverberation in autism, despite the known presence of excitation-to-inhibition imbalances. They can be used to further contrast and refine the Bayesian theories of schizophrenia and autism, revealing a divergence in the computational mechanisms underlying the two conditions.

Efficient and robust coding in heterogeneous recurrent networks.

Cortical networks show a large heterogeneity of neuronal properties. However, traditional coding models have focused on homogeneous populations of excitatory and inhibitory neurons. Here, we analytically derive a class of recurrent networks of spiking neurons that close to optimally track a continuously varying input online, based on two assumptions: 1) every spike is decoded linearly and 2) the network aims to reduce the mean-squared error between the input and the estimate. From this we derive a class of predictive coding networks, that unifies encoding and decoding and in which we can investigate the difference between homogeneous networks and heterogeneous networks, in which each neurons represents different features and has different spike-generating properties. We find that in this framework, 'type 1' and 'type 2' neurons arise naturally and networks consisting of a heterogeneous population of different neuron types are both more efficient and more robust against correlated noise. We make two experimental predictions: 1) we predict that integrators show strong correlations with other integrators and resonators are correlated with resonators, whereas the correlations are much weaker between neurons with different coding properties and 2) that 'type 2' neurons are more coherent with the overall network activity than 'type 1' neurons.

Predictive learning as a network mechanism for extracting low-dimensional latent space representations.

Artificial neural networks have recently achieved many successes in solving sequential processing and planning tasks. Their success is often ascribed to the emergence of the task's low-dimensional latent structure in the network activity - i.e., in the learned neural representations. Here, we investigate the hypothesis that a means for generating representations with easily accessed low-dimensional latent structure, possibly reflecting an underlying semantic organization, is through learning to predict observations about the world. Specifically, we ask whether and when network mechanisms for sensory prediction coincide with those for extracting the underlying latent variables. Using a recurrent neural network model trained to predict a sequence of observations we show that network dynamics exhibit low-dimensional but nonlinearly transformed representations of sensory inputs that map the latent structure of the sensory environment. We quantify these results using nonlinear measures of intrinsic dimensionality and linear decodability of latent variables, and provide mathematical arguments for why such useful predictive representations emerge. We focus throughout on how our results can aid the analysis and interpretation of experimental data.

A functional theory of bistable perception based on dynamical circular inference.

When we face ambiguous images, the brain cannot commit to a single percept; instead, it switches between mutually exclusive interpretations every few seconds, a phenomenon known as bistable perception. While neuromechanistic models, e.g., adapting neural populations with lateral inhibition, may account for the dynamics of bistability, a larger question remains unresolved: how this phenomenon informs us on generic perceptual processes in less artificial contexts. Here, we propose that bistable perception is due to our prior beliefs being reverberated in the cortical hierarchy and corrupting the sensory evidence, a phenomenon known as "circular inference". Such circularity could occur in a hierarchical brain where sensory responses trigger activity in higher-level areas but are also modulated by feedback projections from these same areas. We show that in the face of ambiguous sensory stimuli, circular inference can change the dynamics of the perceptual system and turn what should be an integrator of inputs into a bistable attractor switching between two highly trusted interpretations. The model captures various aspects of bistability, including Levelt's laws and the stabilizing effects of intermittent presentation of the stimulus. Since it is related to the generic perceptual inference and belief updating mechanisms, this approach can be used to predict the tendency of individuals to form aberrant beliefs from their bistable perception behavior. Overall, we suggest that feedforward/feedback information loops in hierarchical neural networks, a phenomenon that could lead to psychotic symptoms when overly strong, could also underlie perception in nonclinical populations.

Circular inference in bistable perception.

When facing ambiguous images, the brain switches between mutually exclusive interpretations, a phenomenon known as bistable perception. Despite years of research, a consensus on whether bistability is driven primarily by bottom-up or top-down mechanisms has not been achieved. Here, we adopted a Bayesian approach to reconcile these two theories. Fifty-five healthy participants were exposed to an adaptation of the Necker cube paradigm, in which we manipulated sensory evidence and prior knowledge. Manipulations of both sensory evidence and priors significantly affected the way participants perceived the Necker cube. However, we observed an interaction between the effect of the cue and the effect of the instructions, a finding that is incompatible with Bayes-optimal integration. In contrast, the data were well predicted by a circular inference model. In this model, ambiguous sensory evidence is systematically biased in the direction of current expectations, ultimately resulting in a bistable percept.

Learning to represent signals spike by spike.

Networks based on coordinated spike coding can encode information with high efficiency in the spike trains of individual neurons. These networks exhibit single-neuron variability and tuning curves as typically observed in cortex, but paradoxically coincide with a precise, non-redundant spike-based population code. However, it has remained unclear whether the specific synaptic connectivities required in these networks can be learnt with local learning rules. Here, we show how to learn the required architecture. Using coding efficiency as an objective, we derive spike-timing-dependent learning rules for a recurrent neural network, and we provide exact solutions for the networks' convergence to an optimal state. As a result, we deduce an entire network from its input distribution and a firing cost. After learning, basic biophysical quantities such as voltages, firing thresholds, excitation, inhibition, or spikes acquire precise functional interpretations.

Population adaptation in efficient balanced networks.

Adaptation is a key component of efficient coding in sensory neurons. However, it remains unclear how neurons can provide a stable representation of external stimuli given their history-dependent responses. Here we show that a stable representation is maintained if efficiency is optimized by a population of neurons rather than by neurons individually. We show that spike-frequency adaptation and E/I balanced recurrent connectivity emerge as solutions to a global cost-accuracy tradeoff. The network will redistribute sensory responses from highly excitable neurons to less excitable neurons as the cost of neural activity increases. This does not change the representation at the population level despite causing dynamic changes in individual neurons. By applying this framework to an orientation coding network, we reconcile neural and behavioral findings. Our approach underscores the common mechanisms behind the diversity of neural adaptation and its role in producing a reliable representation of the stimulus while minimizing metabolic cost.

Can circular inference relate the neuropathological and behavioral aspects of schizophrenia?

Schizophrenia is a complex and heterogeneous mental disorder, and researchers have only recently begun to understand its neuropathology. However, since the time of Kraepelin and Bleuler, much information has been accumulated regarding the behavioral abnormalities usually encountered in patients suffering from schizophrenia. Despite recent progress, how the latter are caused by the former is still debated. Here, we argue that circular inference, a computational framework proposed as a potential explanation for various schizophrenia symptoms, could help end this debate. Based on Marr's three levels of analysis, we discuss how impairments in local and more global neural circuits could generate aberrant beliefs, with far-ranging consequences from probabilistic decision making to high-level visual perception in conditions of ambiguity. Interestingly, the circular inference framework appears to be compatible with a variety of pathophysiological theories of schizophrenia while simulating the behavioral symptoms.

Estimating the Information Extracted by a Single Spiking Neuron from a Continuous Input Time Series.

Understanding the relation between (sensory) stimuli and the activity of neurons (i.e., "the neural code") lies at heart of understanding the computational properties of the brain. However, quantifying the information between a stimulus and a spike train has proven to be challenging. We propose a new (in vitro) method to measure how much information a single neuron transfers from the input it receives to its output spike train. The input is generated by an artificial neural network that responds to a randomly appearing and disappearing "sensory stimulus": the hidden state. The sum of this network activity is injected as current input into the neuron under investigation. The mutual information between the hidden state on the one hand and spike trains of the artificial network or the recorded spike train on the other hand can easily be estimated due to the binary shape of the hidden state. The characteristics of the input current, such as the time constant as a result of the (dis)appearance rate of the hidden state or the amplitude of the input current (the firing frequency of the neurons in the artificial network), can independently be varied. As an example, we apply this method to pyramidal neurons in the CA1 of mouse hippocampi and compare the recorded spike trains to the optimal response of the "Bayesian neuron" (BN). We conclude that like in the BN, information transfer in hippocampal pyramidal cells is non-linear and amplifying: the information loss between the artificial input and the output spike train is high if the input to the neuron (the firing of the artificial network) is not very informative about the hidden state. If the input to the neuron does contain a lot of information about the hidden state, the information loss is low. Moreover, neurons increase their firing rates in case the (dis)appearance rate is high, so that the (relative) amount of transferred information stays constant.

Sensory noise predicts divisive reshaping of receptive fields.

In order to respond reliably to specific features of their environment, sensory neurons need to integrate multiple incoming noisy signals. Crucially, they also need to compete for the interpretation of those signals with other neurons representing similar features. The form that this competition should take depends critically on the noise corrupting these signals. In this study we show that for the type of noise commonly observed in sensory systems, whose variance scales with the mean signal, sensory neurons should selectively divide their input signals by their predictions, suppressing ambiguous cues while amplifying others. Any change in the stimulus context alters which inputs are suppressed, leading to a deep dynamic reshaping of neural receptive fields going far beyond simple surround suppression. Paradoxically, these highly variable receptive fields go alongside and are in fact required for an invariant representation of external sensory features. In addition to offering a normative account of context-dependent changes in sensory responses, perceptual inference in the presence of signal-dependent noise accounts for ubiquitous features of sensory neurons such as divisive normalization, gain control and contrast dependent temporal dynamics.

The Brain as an Efficient and Robust Adaptive Learner.

Understanding how the brain learns to compute functions reliably, efficiently, and robustly with noisy spiking activity is a fundamental challenge in neuroscience. Most sensory and motor tasks can be described as dynamical systems and could presumably be learned by adjusting connection weights in a recurrent biological neural network. However, this is greatly complicated by the credit assignment problem for learning in recurrent networks, e.g., the contribution of each connection to the global output error cannot be determined based only on locally accessible quantities to the synapse. Combining tools from adaptive control theory and efficient coding theories, we propose that neural circuits can indeed learn complex dynamic tasks with local synaptic plasticity rules as long as they associate two experimentally established neural mechanisms. First, they should receive top-down feedbacks driving both their activity and their synaptic plasticity. Second, inhibitory interneurons should maintain a tight balance between excitation and inhibition in the circuit. The resulting networks could learn arbitrary dynamical systems and produce irregular spike trains as variable as those observed experimentally. Yet, this variability in single neurons may hide an extremely efficient and robust computation at the population level.

Experimental evidence for circular inference in schizophrenia.

Schizophrenia (SCZ) is a complex mental disorder that may result in some combination of hallucinations, delusions and disorganized thinking. Here SCZ patients and healthy controls (CTLs) report their level of confidence on a forced-choice task that manipulated the strength of sensory evidence and prior information. Neither group's responses can be explained by simple Bayesian inference. Rather, individual responses are best captured by a model with different degrees of circular inference. Circular inference refers to a corruption of sensory data by prior information and vice versa, leading us to 'see what we expect' (through descending loops), to 'expect what we see' (through ascending loops) or both. Ascending loops are stronger for SCZ than CTLs and correlate with the severity of positive symptoms. Descending loops correlate with the severity of negative symptoms. Both loops correlate with disorganized symptoms. The findings suggest that circular inference might mediate the clinical manifestations of SCZ.

Computational Account of Spontaneous Activity as a Signature of Predictive Coding.

Spontaneous activity is commonly observed in a variety of cortical states. Experimental evidence suggested that neural assemblies undergo slow oscillations with Up ad Down states even when the network is isolated from the rest of the brain. Here we show that these spontaneous events can be generated by the recurrent connections within the network and understood as signatures of neural circuits that are correcting their internal representation. A noiseless spiking neural network can represent its input signals most accurately when excitatory and inhibitory currents are as strong and as tightly balanced as possible. However, in the presence of realistic neural noise and synaptic delays, this may result in prohibitively large spike counts. An optimal working regime can be found by considering terms that control firing rates in the objective function from which the network is derived and then minimizing simultaneously the coding error and the cost of neural activity. In biological terms, this is equivalent to tuning neural thresholds and after-spike hyperpolarization. In suboptimal working regimes, we observe spontaneous activity even in the absence of feed-forward inputs. In an all-to-all randomly connected network, the entire population is involved in Up states. In spatially organized networks with local connectivity, Up states spread through local connections between neurons of similar selectivity and take the form of a traveling wave. Up states are observed for a wide range of parameters and have similar statistical properties in both active and quiescent state. In the optimal working regime, Up states are vanishing, leaving place to asynchronous activity, suggesting that this working regime is a signature of maximally efficient coding. Although they result in a massive increase in the firing activity, the read-out of spontaneous Up states is in fact orthogonal to the stimulus representation, therefore interfering minimally with the network function.

Predictive Ensemble Decoding of Acoustical Features Explains Context-Dependent Receptive Fields.

A primary goal of auditory neuroscience is to identify the sound features extracted and represented by auditory neurons. Linear encoding models, which describe neural responses as a function of the stimulus, have been primarily used for this purpose. Here, we provide theoretical arguments and experimental evidence in support of an alternative approach, based on decoding the stimulus from the neural response. We used a Bayesian normative approach to predict the responses of neurons detecting relevant auditory features, despite ambiguities and noise. We compared the model predictions to recordings from the primary auditory cortex of ferrets and found that: (1) the decoding filters of auditory neurons resemble the filters learned from the statistics of speech sounds; (2) the decoding model captures the dynamics of responses better than a linear encoding model of similar complexity; and (3) the decoding model accounts for the accuracy with which the stimulus is represented in neural activity, whereas linear encoding model performs very poorly. Most importantly, our model predicts that neuronal responses are fundamentally shaped by "explaining away," a divisive competition between alternative interpretations of the auditory scene. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Neural responses in the auditory cortex are dynamic, nonlinear, and hard to predict. Traditionally, encoding models have been used to describe neural responses as a function of the stimulus. However, in addition to external stimulation, neural activity is strongly modulated by the responses of other neurons in the network. We hypothesized that auditory neurons aim to collectively decode their stimulus. In particular, a stimulus feature that is decoded (or explained away) by one neuron is not explained by another. We demonstrated that this novel Bayesian decoding model is better at capturing the dynamic responses of cortical neurons in ferrets. Whereas the linear encoding model poorly reflects selectivity of neurons, the decoding model can account for the strong nonlinearities observed in neural data.

Optimal compensation for neuron loss.

The brain has an impressive ability to withstand neural damage. Diseases that kill neurons can go unnoticed for years, and incomplete brain lesions or silencing of neurons often fail to produce any behavioral effect. How does the brain compensate for such damage, and what are the limits of this compensation? We propose that neural circuits instantly compensate for neuron loss, thereby preserving their function as much as possible. We show that this compensation can explain changes in tuning curves induced by neuron silencing across a variety of systems, including the primary visual cortex. We find that compensatory mechanisms can be implemented through the dynamics of networks with a tight balance of excitation and inhibition, without requiring synaptic plasticity. The limits of this compensatory mechanism are reached when excitation and inhibition become unbalanced, thereby demarcating a recovery boundary, where signal representation fails and where diseases may become symptomatic.